Walnut World Reboots: Chile Eyes a 20 % Crop Surge While U.S. Production Crashes 27 %—Can China’s 1.55 Million-Tonne Harvest Keep Prices Sky-High?
 

Global walnut shortages collide with shifting trade flows and tariff turbulence, pushing premium kernel prices above USD 5,000 per tonne and forcing buyers to re-write their supply strategies for 2025.
 

Latest News (Chronological)
 

• 24 April 2025 – Chile’s turnaround begins. ChileNut’s final 2024/25 bulletin confirms the worst is over: despite a painful export collapse, orchard assessments point to a 20 % larger 2025/26 crop—about 168,000 t—although nut sizes are reportedly smaller.
   
• 17 April 2025 – U.S. export slump deepens. California shipments for September-March drop 34 % year on year, reflecting a production crash to 548,271 t in-shell (-26.7 %). Turkey’s purchases plunge 80 %, while Germany, Italy and Spain trim volumes by single-digits.
   
• 18 April 2025 – Prices stay firm as buyers pivot to China. With Chilean and U.S. supply tight, importers—especially in Europe—snap up Xinjiang and Yunnan walnuts; hand-cracked top grade (ELH 90 %) holds at USD 5,100 / t, and LH 90 % sits near USD 4,350 / t.
   
• 31 March 2025 – Season ends in disappointment for Chile. Final data show shelled exports down 14 % and in-shell down 29 %; February shipments crater more than 60 % versus 2024.
   
• 30 March 2025 – U.S. tariff shock ripples through the nut complex. Washington imposes fresh duties on Canada, Mexico and China, raising the prospect of retaliatory levies on American walnuts, almonds and pistachios.
  
   

Latest Market Updates
 

• Spot kernel prices (late April) range USD 2.60-5.10 / kg depending on origin and grade:
  • Light-amber Chinese pieces 8-12 mm: ≈ USD 2.60 /kg.
  • Iranian in-shell grade B: ≈ USD 3.35 /kg (up 1.3 %).
  • Chinese LH 90 %: ≈ USD 3.70 /kg (down 11.6 %).
  • Chinese Xin 2 ELH 90 %: ≈ USD 4.90 /kg (down 2 %).
     
• In-shell premiums remain elevated. European buyers pay USD 2.40-2.60 /kg CFR for Chilean jumbo grades despite smaller count.
   
• Forward sentiment: traders expect little price relief before Northern-Hemisphere harvests (September 2025) because U.S. inventories are thin and Chile’s larger crop won’t arrive in volume until Q3.
   

Global Production Status
 

• Chile should rebound to ≈ 168,000 t (up 20 %), yet smaller calibres could limit kernel yield. Early harvest finished quickly under dry skies.
   
• United States faces its smallest crop in a decade—548,271 t, plus carry-in takes total availability to 635,000 t. USDA has yet to trim its older 607,814 t figure, causing market confusion.
   
• China remains the anchor supplier with a 1.55 million-tonne 2024/25 harvest that has stabilised after successive record years; Xinjiang stock is dwindling, Yunnan is virtually sold out.
   
• Turkey just suffered the worst frost in 10 years; early field checks show up to 80 % damage in some orchards—more pressure on regional supply.
   
• Iran, Kyrgyzstan & Australia continue to chip away at niche demand, benefiting from tariff-driven pivots and quality improvements.
  
   

Exporters & Trade Flows
 

• Chile → India & Turkey: in-shell shipments collapse -31 % and -54 % respectively, but sales to Italy, Spain and Lithuania rise as Europe fills the gap.
   
• U.S. → Europe & Asia: exports to Germany (-4 %), Italy (-16 %) and Spain (-2 %) slip moderately; India actually raises U.S. imports by 25 % to 13,048 t, buffering the fall.
   
• Buyers swing to China: European importers snap up Xinjiang product, citing consistent colour and “U.S.-like” shell shape; demand now outstrips supply for top grades.
   
• Regional reshuffle: Chile’s share in Brazil halves; Peru’s purchases of Chilean in-shell jump 33 %, mirroring broader South-American appetite.
  
   

Product Quality, Harvest Timing & Kernel Characteristics
 

• Chile 2025/26: early picking led to lighter, smaller kernels—exporters may blend sizes or discount non-jumbo lots.
   
• California 2024/25: unsettled weather shrank kernel size but maintained colour; growers report good flavour, giving processors some leverage despite lower volume.
   
• China 2024/25: Xinjiang walnuts show high oil content and tight shell seals; later-season quality slightly below early-harvest benchmarks—buyers advised to specify yield/colour grades clearly when booking last-minute cargo.
   
• Harvest peaks: Chile (March-April), China (Sept-Nov), U.S. (Aug-Oct), Iran & Turkey (Sept-Oct), Kyrgyzstan (Oct-Nov).
   

Prices & Outlook
 

• Short-term (May-July 2025): prices expected to remain firm or inch higher as EU summer demand meets limited U.S. stock and only trickles of new Chilean crop; premium kernel quotes could test USD 5,200 / t if frost damage in Turkey proves severe.
   
• Medium-term (Aug-Dec 2025): some relief possible when California’s next bloom progresses and Chilean 2025/26 volumes hit European warehouses, but currency moves (especially a firm U.S. dollar) may mute any downside.
   
• Long-term trend: with acreage slowing in the U.S. and consumption growing in India, Southeast Asia and MENA, structural tightness is likely to resurface by early 2026.
  
   

Market Analysis & Signals
 

1. Stocks vs. demand: California handlers entered 2024/25 with small carry-in, and the 34 % export drop is still not enough to rebuild comfort.
    
2. Speculative tone: wholesale buyers are covering further forward than usual—some Spanish and German importers have already booked Q4 Chilean cargo at premiums.
    
3. Quality elasticity: European roasters increasingly accept Chinese kernels despite past scepticism; this behavioural shift could re-shape global differentials.
    
4. Climate watch: frost risk in Anatolia and Central Asia, plus erratic spring rains in California, keep weather headlines at centre stage for Q2-Q3.
   
    

Tariff & Policy Watch
 

• U.S. duties on Canada, Mexico, China raise fears of retaliatory levies on American walnuts; any Chinese response could accelerate the ongoing pivot to Australian, Chilean and Kyrgyz supply.
   
• EU pesticide and sustainability rules tighten kernel-colour specs; exporters from Iran, Kyrgyzstan and China are investing in optical sorters to stay compliant.
   
• Indian import policy remains unchanged for now, but New Delhi is watching global inflation—any hike in tariff or minimum import price could ripple through in-shell demand.
   

Strategic Insights for Momex Stakeholders
 

• Buyers: secure Q3-Q4 cover early, mixing premium Xinjiang kernels with mid-grade Chilean and Californian lots to balance cost and colour requirements.
   
• Sellers: highlight smaller-size but flavour-rich Chilean kernels for snack blends; emphasise “new-crop freshness” narrative to defend price.
   
• Logistics teams: book reefer space promptly—South American container availability is tightening as citrus season overlaps walnut loadings.
   
• Investors: monitor exchange-rate spreads (especially USD/CNY and USD/CLP); a weaker yuan could spur fresh Chinese export offers and ease global prices briefly.
   

Additional & Complementary Updates
 

• Pistachio market overlap: U.S. pistachio production will fall 26 % this season; some snack manufacturers are substituting walnuts, adding incremental demand pressure.
   
• Hazelnut frost in Turkey: 90 % orchard loss in Sakarya district may push confectionery buyers toward walnut-based fillings, particularly during Q4 holiday runs.
   
• Iranian supply: grade-B in-shell prices rose 1.3 % last week to ≈ USD 3.35 /kg, reflecting stronger regional demand after Turkish frost.
   
• Kyrgyzstan’s debut: the land-locked Central-Asian producer shipped USD 2.44 million worth of in-shell walnuts to China in 2024, threatening to undercut traditional exporters if quality holds.

Conclusion
 

The 2025 walnut landscape is one of stark contrasts: Chile is poised for a production rebound, the United States faces its smallest crop in years, and China quietly anchors the supply side with 1.55 million tonnes. Combined with tariff uncertainty and climate shock waves from Turkey to California, the market’s default setting is “tight and volatile.” Prices are unlikely to retreat meaningfully until at least late Q3, and even then any easing could be fleeting if U.S. acreage stagnates and Asian demand accelerates. For growers, traders and roasters, the winning playbook in 2025 is diversification—of origins, contract terms and currency exposure. Leverage Momex’s trading tools now to lock in supply, hedge risks, and ride the next wave of opportunity before it crests.
 

Walnut Market FAQ
 

What is the current price of walnuts in April 2025?
Premium hand-cracked Xinjiang kernels command about USD 5,100 per tonne, while mainstream Chinese LH 90 % is near USD 3,700 per tonne; Chilean in-shell jumbo grades trade around USD 2.50 per kg CFR Europe.
 

Why are walnut prices still high in 2025?
A 27 % production drop in the United States, a 29 % export slump from Chile, and frost damage in Turkey have tightened global supply just as demand shifts to China and India.
 

Will Chile’s bigger 2025/26 crop lower prices?
Volumes should rise about 20 %, but smaller nut sizes, strong forward bookings and low U.S. stocks mean prices are expected to stay firm at least through Q3 2025.
 

How do new U.S. tariffs affect the walnut market?
Fresh duties on Canada, Mexico and China may trigger retaliatory levies on American walnuts, encouraging Chinese and European buyers to pivot further toward Chilean, Australian and Kyrgyz suppliers.
 

Is Chinese walnut quality good enough for Europe?
Yes. European roasters increasingly favour Xinjiang walnuts for their shell shape and light colour; top grades meet EU aflatoxin and pesticide standards when specifications are clearly defined.
 

What is the outlook for walnut prices by the end of 2025?
Most analysts expect only modest softening once Chilean and Californian new crops enter the pipeline; structural tightness and rising Asian consumption could set a new higher floor above USD 3,000 per tonne for standard kernels.