Walnut Market Updates: Rising Prices, Declining Production in the U.S. and Chile, and Trade Opportunities in Europe,  and Asia

The global walnut market in 2024 is navigating through a complex landscape marked by rising prices, declining production, and evolving trade dynamics. With significant shifts in output from leading producers like the United States, China, and Chile, traders and exporters are adapting to fluctuating demand and supply challenges. Here’s a comprehensive analysis of the walnut industry, highlighting production updates, trade trends, pricing, and actionable strategies for traders, particularly in the UAE.

Global Production Updates and Harvest Timelines
 

1. United States:
   • Production Decline: The U.S., the world's largest walnut producer, saw a sharp 30% drop in production, down to 550 million kilograms in 2024 from 671 million kilograms in 2023. This decline is attributed to reduced planting and adverse weather conditions in California, the dominant walnut-producing region.
   • Harvest Timeline: September–October.
   • Product Quality: The Chandler variety, which constitutes 65% of California's walnut acreage, maintains exceptional quality with advanced sorting technology ensuring high standards.
      
2. China:
   • Stable Output: China remains a key player, contributing 40% of global walnut production. Despite slight weather-related disruptions, its robust domestic cultivation sustains global demand.
   • Harvest Timeline: October–November.
      
3. Chile and Argentina:
   • Production Challenges: Both countries report reduced planting areas and production volumes due to poor profitability over the past few years. The harvest season runs from March–May.
      
4. Ukraine:
   • Emerging Player: Ukraine, supported by government grants under the "Sviy Sad" program, has expanded its walnut cultivation area, particularly in the Lviv region. Nut crops now account for 45% of new plantings in the region.
   • Harvest Timeline: September–October.
      
5. European Union:
   • Production Growth: France, Spain, and Italy lead the EU’s walnut production growth, which reached 150,000 tonnes in 2024, an increase of 11% compared to the previous year.

Global Trade Dynamics
 

1. Export Trends:
   • United States: California walnuts face challenges due to the U.S.-China trade war, resulting in higher tariffs and reduced exports to China. Demand from alternative markets, including the EU and India, remains strong.
   • Chile: Despite declining production, Chile continues to cater to premium European and Middle Eastern markets.
   • Ukraine: Increased government support is helping Ukrainian exporters position themselves in high-demand markets.
      
2. Import Trends:
   • China: While domestic production reduces import dependency, China remains a significant market for premium walnut varieties.
   • European Union: The EU imports substantial quantities to meet rising demand, particularly in Germany, Spain, and France.
   • India and UAE: India’s increasing health-conscious population is boosting imports, while the UAE serves as a re-export hub for walnut distribution across Asia and Africa.

Pricing Trends and Market Challenges
 

1. Rising Prices:
   • Walnut prices surged to $3.00/kg or more, driven by reduced supply and speculative trading.
   • Premium varieties like Chandler walnuts from California command higher prices due to consistent quality.
      
2. Market Challenges:
   • Trade Wars: U.S.-China tensions have disrupted traditional trade flows, leading to market diversification.
   • Climate Impact: Adverse weather in key producing regions such as California and Chile has constrained supply.
   • Production Costs: Increasing input costs, coupled with labor shortages, have added to the challenges for growers.
      

Future Trends

1. Market Growth:
   • Rising demand for healthy snacks in regions like India and Southeast Asia is expected to drive global walnut consumption.
   • Premium-quality nuts will dominate high-value markets in Europe and the Middle East.
      
2. Production Recovery:
   • Countries like the U.S. and Ukraine are likely to recover production levels in the next few years through government support and improved farming techniques.
      
3. Sustainability Focus:
   • With consumer emphasis on sustainability, growers are adopting eco-friendly farming practices and advanced irrigation systems to enhance productivity.

Tips for Walnut Traders
 

1. Diversify Sourcing: Explore alternative suppliers like Ukraine and Chile to mitigate risks from U.S.-China trade disruptions.
    
2. Monitor Market Trends: Stay updated on global pricing and geopolitical developments to identify cost-effective buying opportunities.
    
3. Capitalize on Premium Markets: Focus on high-demand regions like Europe, the UAE, and India for premium-quality walnuts.
    
4. Invest in Storage: Secure inventory during periods of low prices to maximize profits during market surges.
    
5. Leverage Technology: Utilize platforms like Momex for real-time market insights, verified supplier connections, and seamless trading.
    

FAQs on the Global Walnut Market
 

Q1: Which countries are the largest walnut producers?
The U.S. and China dominate global walnut production, accounting for 75% of the total output.
 

Q2: What are the key harvest seasons for walnuts?

• U.S.: September–October
• China: October–November
• Chile/Argentina: March–May
• Ukraine: September–October
   

Q3: Why are walnut prices rising in 2024?
Declining production in major regions like California and Chile, coupled with high demand for premium-quality walnuts, has pushed prices upward.
 

Q4: How can UAE traders benefit from the walnut market?
UAE traders can act as a bridge between major producers and global buyers, leveraging the country’s strategic logistics network and re-export capabilities.
 

Q5: What challenges are impacting the walnut trade?
Geopolitical tensions, climate-related production declines, and increasing input costs are major challenges.
 

Q6: How does Momex support walnut traders?
Momex provides real-time price tracking, supplier verification, and market updates to help traders navigate the walnut market efficiently.

Conclusion

The walnut market in 2024 reflects a dynamic environment shaped by production challenges, rising prices, and evolving trade patterns. For traders in the UAE, these trends present both opportunities and risks. By leveraging technology and staying informed, traders can capitalize on high-value markets and secure a competitive edge in the global walnut trade.

Partner with Momex for streamlined trading solutions and market insights. Stay ahead in the walnut market!