The global soybean market in 2025 depends on a variety of factors ranging from trade policy to weather conditions and farming. Although recent trade aid has bolstered prices to some extent, uncertainty related to the weather and the production level still affects the manner in which the market performs.

Understanding Trade Relief and What It Means for the Future

One of the key developments of 2025 has been the 90-day trade ceasefire between China and the United States, which has led to a temporary reduction of tariffs. 

The U.S. has decreased tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, while China has reduced duties on U.S. goods to 10%. This easing of trade tensions has brought relief for U.S. soybean growers, who have been battling excess production and weak prices.

But the truce is only set to last until just ahead of the fall harvest, and permanent solutions have still to be discovered. During the previous trade war, Chinese demand for U.S. soybean exports fell from 40% to 22%, when China turned to Brazil. The current truce is temporary respite, then, and the threat of re-escalation looms over it.

 Uncertain Weather and Production Issues

Weather has been a significant factor in soybean production in key regions:

United States: The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicts a decline in soybean production for the 2024/25 crop year. Production is estimated at 4.366 billion bushels, 95 million bushels below the previous forecast, mainly due to reduced yields and a slight decrease in harvested area.

Argentina: Leading soybean meal and oil exporter Argentina was hit by severe storms that flooded key soybean production zones. Up to 400 mm of rain soaked the northern Buenos Aires province, retarding the harvest of soybeans and endangering potential crop damage.

India: Indian soybean area is likely to reduce as farmers switch to more lucrative crops such as corn and sugar cane. Soybean prices have traded 10-20% under the government-determined floor price since October 2024, encouraging farmers to choose alternatives.

Global Supply and Demand Dynamics

Global soybean inventories are predicted to reach record highs in 2024-25. However, the USDA dropped the world ending stock projection to 121.4 million metric tons from 124.3 million due to increased Chinese and Argentine consumption.

Brazilian soybean output is pegged to rise to 169 million metric tons from 153 million tons in the previous cycle due to favorable weather and expanded planting areas. Brazil's capacity to supply growing global demand, including by large importers such as China, has pressured U.S. soybeans exports.

Soybean Prices in the Market and Trade Realignments

U.S. Soybean Prices: The USDA predicts the U.S. average farm price of soybeans at $10.25 per bushel for the marketing year 2025/26. This is up from $9.95 per bushel in 2024/25.

Economic Research Service

Soybean Meal and Oil Prices: The price of soybean meal per short ton will probably increase to $310.00, and the price of soybean oil per pound will likely increase to $0.46.

Trade Relations: The U.S. and China have agreed on the 90-day trade truce, which has lowered tariffs on a temporary basis. The U.S. has lowered tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, and China has lowered tariffs on American goods to 10%. This downturn of trade tensions gives U.S. soybean growers a temporary reprieve.

Regional Insights: Navigating the Shifting Currents of the Global Soya Market

India & Brazil in Focus: Farmer Choices and Export Milestones Shape 2025 Outlook

India: Fewer Indian farmers will sow soybeans in 2025 as they prefer to sow more profitable crops like corn and sugar cane. Soybean market prices since October 2024 have traded 10-20% lower than the minimum price set by the government, due to which farmers are choosing to sow other crops.

Brazil: Soybean exports in Brazil will be record high, with exports for 2024/25 and 2025/26 pegged at 108.3 million metric tons and 112 million metric tons, respectively.

Market Problems and Outlook Forward

Stockpiles: Global soybean stocks are forecast at record highs in 2024/25. However, the USDA lowered the world ending stock estimate to 121.4 million metric tons from 124.3 million because of higher Chinese and Argentine consumption.

Market Size: The market size of the international soybean market is expected to increase from $160.29 billion in 2024 to $169.68 billion in 2025, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate  of 5.9%.

The Business Research Company  Price Trends and Market Outlook Soybean prices have been languishing. In March 2025, prices averaged \$10.12 per bushel, 2.7% lower than February and a three-month low. In early April, the most-active CBOT soybean contract dropped to \$9.77 per bushel, 3.4% lower and the 2025 low to date .([Archer Financial Services][8]) The global soybean market will continue to be well supplied through 2025, which should hold prices in check. The threat of higher trade tensions is a bearish cloud over the market.

 Conclusion 

The 2025 soybean market is making small gains due to temporary trade assistance, but is also threatened by weather issues and shifting worldwide demand. Though short-term projections are slightly optimistic, long-term stability will depend on enduring trade agreements, favorable weather, and adaptable farming practices.