Surging Indian imports, China’s 100 % pea tariff, and Canada’s 35 % production jump collide with shrinking Australian exports and volatile weather in Europe—setting the stage for a nerve-wracking lentil season.
Latest News (Chronological)
28 April 2025 – China Retaliates on Canadian Peas. Ottawa’s autumn tariff on Chinese EVs has come full circle: Beijing now slaps a 100 % duty on Canadian peas, rattling pulse markets and pushing buyers toward alternative origins.
23 April 2025 – India’s Pulse Imports to Explode 52 %. Analysts at IGrain forecast 6.71 million t of pulse imports in 2024/25—nearly triple the five-year average—driven by yellow peas (2.04 Mt) and lentils (1.29 Mt).
14 April 2025 – Australian Lentil Exports Dip 12 % as India’s Tariff-Free Window Closes. February shipments to India reached 59 kt—one last push before the 50 %-quota tariff resumes.
14 April 2025 – Canadian Harvest & Indian Demand Shape Trends. A 35 % rebound in Canada’s 2024 crop stabilises global supply, even as France battles quality issues and Spain fights drought.
9 April 2025 – Canadian Exports Surge 70 % in February. India alone bought 110 kt, pushing August-to-February exports to 1.44 Mt, up from 1.07 Mt last season.
3 April 2025 – Turkish Farmers Expand Lentil Acreage. Yozgat, Turkey’s pulse hub, begins planting 300 acres of chickpeas and ramps up green-lentil sowings despite recent frost scares.
Latest Market Updates
Canadian growers face a split universe: old-crop green lentils fetch CAD 0.50–0.51/lb FOB farm (≈ USD 0.37/lb), while new-crop bids slump to CAD 0.40–0.42/lb (≈ USD 0.30/lb). Red-lentil spreads are tighter—CAD 0.34 vs 0.29/lb—thanks to steady global demand.
Spot trade in Europe reflects the same pressure: No. 1 Dark-Speckled Greens ex-Canada are quoted around EUR 1.25/kg (≈ USD 1.35/kg), Chinese small greens at EUR 1.33/kg (≈ USD 1.44/kg), Canadian yellow-split at EUR 1.50/kg (≈ USD 1.62/kg), and Eston greens holding EUR 1.49/kg (≈ USD 1.61/kg).
With China’s pea demand sidelined by punitive tariffs and India’s duty-free yellow-pea window closed on 31 March, trade houses expect substitution into lentils—especially from millers in the UAE, Turkey, and Bangladesh.
Global Production Status
Canada harvested 2.43 million t in 2024—up 35 % y/y on a 15.9 % acreage boost and 16.4 % yield jump. Early seed sales suggest 2025 green-lentil acreage could expand again despite StatsCan’s initial 1 % decline forecast.
Australia shipped 149 kt of lentils in February—its last big month before India’s duty-free quota expired. Dry late-season weather trimmed yields, and the lower Australian dollar (< USD 0.60) is a rare tailwind for exporters.
India remains production-challenged; erratic monsoons keep yields flat, forcing the government to extend duty-free pea quotas and maintain an 11 % import duty on lentils. Above-average 2025 rainfall is forecast, but any delay could widen the supply gap.
France grapples with quality downgrades due to disease pressure, while Spain faces drought-induced acreage cuts—both tightening Europe’s own supplies.
Ukraine eyes lentils as a high-value alternative crop, with southern regions scaling up brown, green, and red varieties resilient to dry continental climates.
Exporters & Trade Flows
Canada supplied 800 kt of lentils between August and November 2024, led by India (350 kt), Turkey, and the UAE. February’s 110 kt shipment to India underlines Delhi’s dependence despite its tariff regime.
India absorbed 59 kt of the 149 kt Australian cargo in February—also securing the first 21 kt bulk shipment under the new Australia-India Economic Cooperation & Trade Agreement, paying half-tariff.
China, once a sporadic lentil buyer, is now distracted by its own trade war with Canada—yet could emerge for non-Canadian origins if pea substitutes stay pricey.
Product Quality, Harvest Timing & Characteristics
Canada’s 2024 greens boast high protein and bright colour, but analysts warn the 2025 crop could skew toward reds if growers chase cheaper seed. Harvest begins late July on the Prairies; early frosts remain the main risk.
Australian lentils command a premium for uniform size and low cracking; however, drought stress has heightened screen losses in some South-Australian bins. Harvest concluded in January.
Indian importers prioritise hulling grades: Canadian No. 2 reds mill efficiently, while French greens find niche demand among packagers.
Prices Now & Short-Term Outlook
FOB Western Canada bids suggest USD 820–840/t for old-crop greens and USD 630–660/t for new-crop. Reds hover USD 670/t spot and USD 580/t forward.
Over the next three months, traders expect green-old-crop premiums to erode as new supply approaches, but sustained Indian import demand and limited Australian carry-out should anchor reds above USD 600/t.
Market Analysis & Signals
Tariff & Policy Watch
Strategic Insights for Momex Stakeholders
Additional & Complementary Updates
Conclusion
The 2025 lentil landscape is a tapestry of record Canadian supply, surging Indian appetite, and disruptive tariff cross-fire between Canada and China. Prices look steady-to-firm: green premiums may soften into harvest, but reds should stay buoyant as importers pivot away from tariffed peas and drought-hit Australian volumes. For traders, the watchwords are policy vigilance, weather hedging, and origin diversification—all essential as the pulse market navigates its most unpredictable year in a decade.
FAQs
What is the current price of lentils in 2025?
As of late April 2025, old-crop Canadian green lentils trade around USD 820–840 per tonne FOB prairie farm; reds hover near USD 670 per tonne. European spot quotes range USD 1.35–1.62 per kilogram depending on grade and origin.
Why are lentil prices holding firm despite Canada’s bumper crop?
Strong Indian imports, Australian export shrinkage, and China’s diversion from peas into alternative pulses keep demand robust, offsetting Canada’s 35 % production jump.
How will China’s 100 % pea tariff affect lentil trade?
China’s duty sidelines Canadian peas, encouraging feed users to consider yellow-split lentils and potentially tightening lentil supply later in 2025.
Will India lower duties on lentils in 2025?
Delhi currently maintains an 11 % import duty, but past behaviour shows it may adjust levies to curb food inflation, especially if monsoon rains falter.
Which countries are the top lentil exporters in 2025?
Canada leads with roughly 2.4 million t, followed by Australia and, to a lesser extent, Turkey and Ukraine (emerging). India, despite production, remains the dominant importer.
What are the key risks for lentil prices this year?
Monsoon variability in India, June rainfall in Western Canada, policy shifts on Indian import duties, and any escalation in Canada-China trade tensions could all jolt prices.
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