The hazelnut market is entering 2026 under fundamentally altered conditions, with Turkey at the center of a long-term price reset rather than a short-lived spike. According to market participants, the challenges of 2025 were not cyclical—they were structural.
2025 Review: Supply Shock Meets Cost Inflation
The 2025/26 marketing year in Turkey was defined by a convergence of negative factors:
- Frost damage and weather-related losses, reducing usable supply
- Lower overall quality, tightening availability of premium grades
- Surging production and financing costs, amplified by high domestic inflation
- Buyer resistance and shipment defaults, as prices moved too quickly for some markets
Together, these pressures pushed hazelnut prices sharply higher and disrupted traditional purchasing behavior across Europe, Russia, and Asia.
Geopolitics & Trade Flows
While U.S. tariffs on Turkish hazelnuts remained limited (around 10%) and did not significantly curb exports, geopolitical instability added financial uncertainty, especially via currency and payment channels.
Trade with Russia weakened, with export volumes falling from 3,700 MT to 2,800 MT year-on-year, largely due to payment difficulties and sanctions-related constraints. Meanwhile, retaliatory tariffs between the U.S. and China reduced the competitiveness of American hazelnuts in the Chinese market, indirectly reinforcing Turkey’s importance in global supply.
Why “High Prices” Are the New Normal
Market consensus is increasingly clear: hazelnut prices are unlikely to revert to historical lows. Key reasons include:
- Persistently high inflation in Turkey, expected to last at least two more years
- Low carry-over stocks from the 2025/26 season
- Rising demand from value-added sectors, including chocolate, spreads, bakery, and functional foods
- Higher compliance, labor, and financing costs, permanently lifting the cost base
Even if future crops improve, the industry no longer has the buffer stocks or cost flexibility needed to absorb price shocks.
2026 Risk Landscape
Looking ahead, hazelnut market participants face several intertwined risks:
- Weather volatility, especially frost and heat stress
- Buyer resistance at elevated price levels, potentially shifting demand toward substitutes
- Quality rejections, driven by tighter food safety and residue standards
- Increased need for origin diversification and formulation changes
Producers, traders, and manufacturers are being advised to lock in long-term contracts strategically, diversify sourcing where possible, and closely monitor crop development.
Market Outlook & Price Direction
2026 Outlook: PRICES TO REMAIN HIGH, WITH UPSIDE RISK
Reasons:
- Tight supply and low carry-over stocks
- Structural inflation and high financing costs in Turkey
- Strong, persistent demand from value-added food industries
- Increased vulnerability to weather shocks
Bottom line:
The hazelnut market has crossed into a structurally higher price regime. Volatility will remain, but any correction is likely to be shallow and temporary, not a return to old pricing norms.
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