2024 Global Walnut Market: U.S. and China Lead Amid Production Drops and Rising Prices

The global walnut market is undergoing significant changes in 2024, driven by climatic challenges and shifts in production across major producers such as the USA, China, and Ukraine. With an emphasis on walnut consumption in the UAE and Middle East, this analysis will explore recent updates in production, the main exporters and importers, harvest quality, price trends, and insights for traders.

Production Overview

1. United States (California)

   • 2024 Harvest: California’s walnut production is expected to decrease by 19%, with an output of 670,000 tons, down from 824,000 tons in 2023. Despite the reduction, the quality remains high, with the crop expected to be similar in size to the 2019 harvest. A strong summer demand has also depleted inventory levels.
      
   • Harvest Timing: The California walnut harvest begins in late September and runs through November, producing some of the best-quality walnuts globally.
      
2. China
   • China remains a dominant player in walnut production, responsible for 31% of the global supply. Despite its massive output, 2024 saw challenges, including yield losses due to extreme weather conditions. The harvest season in China begins in late September in key regions like Xinjiang.
      
3. Ukraine
   • Ukraine’s walnut production is estimated to be 106,000 tons, but exports are expected to decline by 9.4% due to weather conditions and quality variations. Despite these challenges, Ukraine remains the second-largest supplier to the EU after the USA, primarily exporting shelled walnuts.
      
   • Harvest Timing: The walnut harvest in Ukraine starts in September and continues into October.
      
4. Moldova
   • Harvest Quality: Recent rainfall has improved the quality of walnuts in Moldova, where growers anticipate a timely and high-quality harvest. Early varieties like Peschansky are ready for harvest in mid-September.
      
5. Turkey
   • Climate Challenges: Turkey is facing reduced quality due to extreme heat and global warming. Producers are reporting sunburnt walnuts and thinner shells, which could affect market prices.
      

Export and Import Insights

1. Key Exporters

   • USA: The United States, specifically California, is the leading walnut exporter, catering to markets in the EU, Asia, and the Middle East.
      
   • China: While China is a significant producer, it also imports walnuts to meet domestic demand, making it both an exporter and importer.
      
   • Ukraine: As the second-largest walnut supplier to the EU, Ukraine’s exports are significant but declining due to quality issues and increased competition.
      
2. Major Importers
    
   • EU: The European Union is a leading walnut importer, with Germany, Spain, and the Netherlands being the top destinations. The EU increased its walnut imports by 31.9% in 2024, mainly sourcing from the USA, Ukraine, and China.
      
   • UAE & Middle East: The Middle East, particularly the UAE, relies heavily on imports from the USA and China, making it a vital market for walnut exporters.

Price Trends in 2024

• The decrease in California's output and the quality concerns in Ukraine and Turkey are likely to push up prices, especially for high-quality walnuts.

• In contrast, China's production, though affected by yield issues, is still expected to stabilize global prices due to its significant volume.

Product Quality in 2024

• USA: California walnuts are expected to maintain high quality despite lower production, with strong demand driving prices up.

• China: Despite yield losses, China's ‘Seaflower’ variety is expected to maintain competitive quality.
   
• Ukraine: Mixed quality due to small-scale production challenges, though irrigation improvements have helped maintain output levels.

Harvest Timings

• USA (California): September–November

• China: Late September–October
   
• Ukraine & Moldova: September–October
   
• Turkey: September–October
   

Insights for Traders in UAE & Middle East

1. Diversify Sourcing: With production challenges in Ukraine and Turkey, traders should focus on sourcing from California and China, which offer more reliable supplies.

2. Monitor Quality: As climatic conditions impact walnut quality, especially in Turkey, sourcing high-quality walnuts will be essential for maintaining consumer trust.
    
3. Watch Price Trends: Prices are expected to fluctuate due to reduced production in key regions like the USA and Ukraine. Traders should stay informed on market conditions to capitalize on favorable price movements.

FAQ

1. When is the best time to source walnuts globally?

   • The optimal harvest period is from September to November for major producers like the USA, China, and Ukraine.
      
2. Which countries are the top walnut exporters in 2024?
   • The USA, China, and Ukraine are the leading walnut exporters, with California producing some of the highest-quality walnuts.
      
3. What is the impact of global warming on walnut production?
   • Global warming is leading to quality loss and yield reductions, especially in Turkey, where extreme heat has caused sunburn and shell thinning.
      
4. How are walnut prices trending in 2024?
   • Prices are expected to rise due to a 19% reduction in California’s output and production challenges in Ukraine and Turkey.
      
5. What role does the UAE play in the walnut market?
   • The UAE is a growing hub for walnut imports in the Middle East, sourcing mainly from California and China to meet increasing demand.
      
6. How can traders mitigate risks in the walnut market?
   • Traders can mitigate risks by diversifying their suppliers, monitoring quality closely, and staying informed on price fluctuations.

By staying ahead of market trends and leveraging high-quality sourcing, Momex ensures that your walnut supply remains competitive and fresh, helping you navigate the complex global market efficiently. For more insights and tailored solutions, contact Momex today!