Frost, Viral Demand & Shifting Trade Routes Push Pistachios Into Uncharted Territory

Global pistachio supply is tightening just as a social‑media‑fuelled demand boom collides with weather losses and tariff turbulence. Below is a full market narrative drawn exclusively from the latest May–April 2025 data.
 

1. Latest Market Updates (chronological)
 

• 8 May 2025 – Turkey: Mid‑April frosts down to –15 °C damaged orchards in Kahramanmaraş and Adıyaman while sparing Gaziantep. Uncertainty over yield sparked a fresh round of speculative buying.
   
• 6 May 2025 – Iran: Exports surge on attractive prices, Dubai‑chocolate hype and Chinese switching away from U.S. origin after Trump‑era tariffs. April shipments: 1 503 t, mostly kernels/green kernels.
   
• 28 Apr 2025 – INC Data: 2024/25 global in‑shell output 1.168 Mt (+9.1 % y/y) on Turkey’s 130.8 % bumper crop (415 500 t). U.S. production slumped 25.7 %.
   
• 19 Apr 2025 – TikTok frenzy: Viral Dubai chocolate sends kernel prices from $7.65/lb to $10.30/lb (≈ $22.7/kg); retailers impose purchase limits.
   
• 15 Apr 2025 – USA: USDA projects only 1.1 bn lb (499 000 t) shelled pistachios, the third‑smallest in the past decade; grower prices expected to rise despite larger bearing acreage.
   
• 8 Apr 2025 – Argentina: Chinese customs approve Argentine pistachios; first cargoes expected Q4 2025.
   

2. Global Production Status
 

• Turkey: Record 415 500 t in 2024/25 after an “on‑year”, yet frost may pare 2025/26 potential by up to 15 %. Harvest: late Aug–Sept.
   
• Iran: Output exceeded expectations but skewed toward smaller, partially closed nuts due to heat stress; harvest: Sept–Oct.
   
• United States (California): 26 % fall to 1.1 bn lb; still backed by hefty carry‑over. Alternate‑bearing suggests bigger 2025/26 crop if winter chill returns.
   
• Spain & Italy: Minor EU producers down 10‑15 % on drought.
   
• Argentina: Emerging origin; acreage expanding and now cleared for China, adding modest volume from March harvest.
   

3. Key Exporters & Importers
 

• Export leaders: United States, Iran, Turkey. Turkey’s big crop boosted 2024/25 shipments; Iran regained Chinese share; U.S. still dominates EU high‑grade kernel imports.
   
• Import hubs: EU (Germany, Spain, Italy), China (redirected to Iran & Turkey), UAE (Dubai confectionery), India trending upward.
   

4. Product Quality, Harvest Timing & Grades
 

• Turkey (Gaziantep): Large, well‑filled kernels; minimal frost impact. Kahramanmaraş fruit may show blanking.
• Iran: Quality good but higher aflatoxin risk; EU tightening border checks. Premium grades: Akbari 20‑22 mm & green kernels.
• U.S.: Uniform sizing, low aflatoxin; smaller crop keeps premiums firm.
   

Harvest windows:

• Turkey/Iran: Aug–Oct
• U.S. (CA): Sept–Oct
• Argentina: Feb–Mar
   

5. Current Prices (converted to USD, May 2025)
 

• Iran Fandoghi 32‑34 mm, closed‑mouth: ≈ $7.36 /kg (↑6.9 %).
• Iran Akbari 20‑22 mm: ≈ $12.17 /kg (↑6.3 %).
• Iran Green premium kernel: ≈ $16.54 /kg (↑6 %).
• Spot Dubai‑chocolate grade kernels: $22.70 /kg after viral demand shock.

Forward offers for U.S. extra‑large kernels (21‑25) quoted $9.80–10.20 /kg CIF EU amid tight stocks.
 

6. Market Analysis & Signals
 

• Demand boom: Social‑media‑driven confectionery and Asia’s post‑COVID rebound have absorbed surplus quickly.
• Supply risk: Turkish frost + U.S. small crop tighten 2025 carry‑in; Iran’s self‑sanction banking hurdles cap export pace despite available product.
• Price momentum: Kernel premiums over in‑shell widened to $5‑8 /kg; EU buyers benefitted from early Gaziantep offers before frost news.
• Speculation: Traders hoarding in Istanbul following –15 °C reports; risk of overshoot if damage proves minor in main orchards.
   

7. Tariff & Policy Watch
 

• U.S.–China: 25 % retaliatory tariff keeps most Chinese buyers away from U.S. origin.
• EU aflatoxin controls: Iranian lots face heightened border sampling; a ban still possible if fail‑rate exceeds 5 %.
• Argentina‑China deal: Zero duty under new phytosanitary protocol could divert some Chinese demand late 2025.
   

8. Strategic Insights for Momex Stakeholders
 

• Buyers: Secure Q3–Q4 needs now—focus on Turkish Gaziantep and U.S. kernels before frost assessments tighten offers.
• Sellers: Release limited volumes to exploit 6‑7 % monthly price climb; ensure aflatoxin compliance for EU.
• Traders: Arbitrage opportunity between EU discount on early Turkish crop and premium Asian kernel prices.
   

9. Additional & Complementary Updates
 

• TikTok‑fuelled Dubai chocolate craze continues to drain kernel stocks; some European chocolatiers ration bars.
• Global carry‑over from 2023/24 only 163 900 t, the lowest in three seasons.
• Argentina’s pecan & hazelnut approvals hint at broader South‑American nut portfolio growth in China.
   

10. Conclusion

Tight supplies from the U.S., frost fears in Turkey, and runaway demand driven by viral consumer trends have combined to keep pistachio prices on an upward trajectory. Unless Iran can scale exports unhindered and Turkish damage proves minimal, the market is poised for further firming into the 2025/26 marketing year.
 

FAQs

Why are pistachio prices rising in 2025? 
Weather damage in Turkey, a smaller U.S. crop and viral demand spikes are squeezing global inventories.
 

Which countries produce the most pistachios this season? 
Turkey leads with ~415 000 t, followed by the U.S. (~499 000 t) and Iran.
 

Is there a risk of EU bans on Iranian pistachios? 
Yes—elevated aflatoxin levels could trigger temporary bans; exporters are racing to improve quality control.
 

How will TikTok’s Dubai chocolate trend impact pistachios supply?
It has already lifted kernel prices to $22+/kg and drawn down stocks, likely keeping the market tight through 2025.

When is the next harvest pistachios and could it ease prices? 
Northern‑Hemisphere harvest starts late August; early estimates suggest only moderate relief if frost damage in Turkey remains localised.