Ferrero’s Hazelnut Price Shock, Italy’s €9 Billion Farm Crisis,  Azerbaijan and Ukraine ’s role in Hazelnut Market!

 

Hazelnuts remain a critical commodity in the global nut market, sought after for their unique flavor and versatility in confectionery, bakery, and snack segments. From Turkey’s dominating role in production and export, to emerging producers like Ukraine and Azerbaijan, and major buyers such as Italy’s confectionery giants, the market has shown significant volatility and growth potential. Below is a full analysis of recent developments, production trends, export-import dynamics, quality considerations, pricing outlook, and market signals shaping the hazelnut sector in 2025.

 

 

1. Latest Market Updates & News

 

Ferrero’s Influence on Turkish Hazelnut Pricing
 

• Ferrero’s Tender Above Market Price
  In early 2025, Ferrero, one of the world’s largest confectionery companies, awarded a tender to Durak Fındık (a leading Turkish hazelnut exporter) for high-quality Çakıl hazelnuts at TRY 132.50/kg. This bid was notably higher than the prevailing market price and spurred an immediate rise in hazelnut quotations.
   
• Competitors Respond
  Balsu, another major Turkish exporter, quickly adjusted its offers, fueling additional price increases. This competitive dynamic underscores Ferrero’s outsized influence over Turkish hazelnut pricing and supply strategies.
   

 

Notable Turkish Price Increases
 

• Price Spike to TRY 140.00/kg
  Reports from the Black Sea region highlight that in-shell hazelnut prices recently reached 140.00 TRY. Sellers are holding back stocks, anticipating further gains, while major buyers appear more cautious about timing their purchases.

 

 

Turkish Economy and Interest Rates
 

• Stability at 47.5%
  Turkey’s central bank policy rate stands at 47.5%, supporting a relatively stable Turkish lira. This monetary context somewhat steadies hazelnut market conditions, though potential shifts in economic policies remain a concern for exporters, buyers, and farmers.
   

 

2. Global Production Status
 

Turkey
 

• Primary Global Producer
  Turkey remains the top producer and exporter of hazelnuts, particularly from its Black Sea region. According to the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) and key exporters, the 2024 harvest faced quality issues, raising the rejection rate and driving up premiums for premium-grade kernels.
   
• Speculative Activity
  Farmers and exporters are withholding stocks, expecting further price increases as large buyers (like Ferrero) still need significant tonnage—estimated at 55,000–90,000 tons—to meet seasonal requirements.
  
   

Ukraine
 

• Rapid Expansion of Hazelnut Orchards
  Newly established orchards in Ukraine now devote 95% of their nut-growing area to hazelnuts. From 2018 to 2024, Ukraine planted 15,444 hectares of orchards, with about 6,268 hectares (41%) being various walnut-family species.
   
• Export Milestone
  In 2024, Ukraine exported over 100 tons of hazelnuts for the first time. While not large in global terms, it marks a turning point for a country that historically relied on imports. Domestic production in industrial gardens is on the rise, potentially boosting Ukraine’s role as an emerging hazelnut supplier in Europe.
  
   

Azerbaijan
 

• Export Trends to Italy
  Azerbaijan exported 1,378 tons of peeled hazelnuts in the first 10 months of 2024, valued at USD 10.03 million. While sales to Italy dropped by 37% in volume, the price per ton rose by 26% compared to the previous year—an increase from USD 5,760 to USD 7,277 per ton.
   
• Competitive Advantages
  Known for quality hazelnuts and proximity to European markets, Azerbaijan remains focused on high-value exports despite reduced volumes. This suggests a strong demand for premium, peeled hazelnuts in Italy and beyond.
  
   

Italy
 

• Production Challenges
  Italy grows a notable portion of Europe’s hazelnuts (particularly in regions like Piedmont, Lazio, and Campania). However, Coldiretti reports that climate change, drought, and rising input costs have weighed heavily on the sector, contributing to an estimated EUR 9 billion loss in agricultural revenue across different commodities in 2024.
   
• Epidemics & Weather Events
  Hazelnut yields and quality have been impacted by weather fluctuations and diseases. While Italy remains a net importer of hazelnuts (primarily from Turkey and other origins), local producers face mounting production costs and uncertain yields.
   

 

3. Major Exporters & Importers
 

• Key Exporters
  1. Turkey: Dominates global hazelnut exports, with a broad range of kernel qualities.
  2. Azerbaijan: Specialized in peeled hazelnuts; a rising supplier to Europe, especially Italy.
  3. Georgia: Also a smaller but emerging exporter in the region.
  4. Italy: While an important producer, it can also export specialty varieties. However, Italy remains predominantly a consumer of imported hazelnuts.
      
• Leading Importers
  1. Europe (Germany, France, Italy): Confectionery and chocolate industries drive demand.
  2. Ferrero: A significant commercial buyer globally, influencing prices and supply chains.
  3. Ukraine: Once primarily an importer, Ukraine is inching toward self-sufficiency and exports.
  4. Russia: Another market with demand for hazelnut-based confectionery and snack products.
      

 

4. Product Quality, Harvest Time, & Quality Concerns
 

Product Quality
 

• Turkish Hazelnuts
  Turkish varieties typically offer a rich flavor and consistent size, favored by confectioners worldwide. However, the 2024 crop showed higher reject rates, driving a stronger price differential between premium and lower-quality nuts.
   
• Azerbaijani Hazelnuts
  Peeled hazelnuts from Azerbaijan continue to command higher prices in destinations like Italy. Consistent kernel size and moisture control are key quality factors.
   

 

• Ukrainian Hazelnuts
  While still evolving, Ukraine’s industrial gardens produce hazelnuts with competitive quality parameters. Exporters emphasize rigorous post-harvest handling to maintain freshness.
  
   

 

Harvest Timing
 

• Turkey
  Harvest typically occurs from late August into September, though climatic variations can shift the timeline.
   
• Ukraine & Azerbaijan
  Harvest seasons align roughly with the Northern Hemisphere, running from mid-August through early autumn.
   
• Italy
  Similar harvest window as Turkey, depending on region and variety (Tonda Gentile, etc.).
  
   

 

Current Quality Issues
 

• In Turkey, moisture levels and kernel damage from adverse weather have elevated sorting and processing costs.
   
• In Italy, drought and extreme heat events have stressed orchards, resulting in lower yields per hectare.

 

 

5. Prices Now & Future Trends
 

Present Price Levels
 

• Turkey
   
  • In-shell hazelnuts: Around TRY 140.00/kg as of January 2025.
  • Kernels (11–13 mm, g/n) DDP Central Europe: ~€8.12/kg for conventional raw kernels and up to €9.85/kg for roasted kernels.
  • Hazelnut paste: ~€6.40/kg.
    
     
• Azerbaijan
   
  • Export prices to Italy increased by 26% year-on-year, to an average of USD 7,277/ton for peeled hazelnuts.
    
     

Short-Term Outlook
 

1. Speculative Holding
   Turkish farmers and exporters anticipate further demand from Ferrero and other industrial buyers, leading to restricted supply and upward price pressure.
    
2. Quality Segmentation
   Higher rejection rates in the 2024 crop are pushing premium nuts to fetch significantly higher prices. Lower-quality batches may see discounts if supply eventually loosens.
   
    

Long-Term Forecast
 

1. Climate & Crop Uncertainty
   Frost risk in Turkey and ongoing drought conditions in Italy can dramatically shape yield and quality. TMO (Turkish Grain Board) interventions will also influence price trajectories.
    
2. Emerging Producers
   Countries like Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Georgia will continue scaling up. If they maintain quality standards, they may capture a bigger share in Europe.
    
3. Cautious Confectioners
   Chocolate and confectionery manufacturers are wary of overbuying, particularly with uncertain consumer demand forecasts. They remain price-sensitive but must secure enough stock to meet production targets.
   
    

 

6. Market Analysis & Signals
 

1. Ferrero’s Market Impact
   • High tender bids can spur widespread price hikes. Other exporters like Balsu adjust offers accordingly, indicating strong competition for premium quality.
      
2. Seller Strategies
   • With farmers and exporters holding onto their stocks, supply remains tight. This “artificial” constraint, if prolonged, may lead to higher prices well into the first quarter of 2025.
      
3. TMO Role
   • The TMO is expected to release stocks around March or April. Any sudden release might stabilize or lower market prices, but TMO could also opt for a strategic hold, especially until the frost risk period ends.
      
4. Demand Shifts in Europe & Beyond
   • Amid uncertain sales forecasts, the chocolate sector practices conservative buying, though consistent consumption of hazelnut spreads, pralines, and pastries keeps baseline demand stable.
      
5. Financing Pressures
   • Rising inflation and storage costs in Turkey and elsewhere add financial burdens for farmers, which can accelerate or dampen their willingness to hold onto hazelnuts.
      

 

7. Additional & Complementary Updates

Having reviewed all content, below are further insights and countries mentioned that round out the global hazelnut narrative:
 

• Italy’s Agricultural Struggles in 2024
  Italian agriculture—spanning multiple crops, including hazelnuts—faced an estimated EUR 9 billion blow. Climate challenges, epidemics (African swine fever, avian flu in poultry, etc.), and high production costs have contributed to yield declines. Despite these headwinds, Italy remains a leading European buyer of hazelnuts, particularly from Turkey and increasingly from Azerbaijan.

 

 

• Price Ceilings in Key Import Markets
  Some markets (e.g., China) may implement price ceilings or slower import growth if hazelnut costs rise too high. This could curb demand, easing upward pressure on global hazelnut prices.
   
• Ukraine’s Export Ambitions
  Beyond the 100+ tons already shipped in 2024, Ukrainian producers hope to solidify their place in the global hazelnut market. Associations emphasize consistent quality to avoid demand pitfalls.
   
• Potential Surplus from 2022 Harvest
  Inventories from the 2022 harvest—if still of usable quality—could help meet demand starting in March, mitigating any extreme price spikes. However, aging stock can face quality degradation or be deemed unsuitable for premium segments.
   

 

Final Thoughts

The hazelnut market in 2025 is shaped by strong speculative dynamics, rising prices driven by premium-quality shortages, and the influential buying power of multinational confectioners. Turkey’s unwavering role as the primary producer and exporter remains central, although emerging producers like Ukraine and Azerbaijan are increasingly making their mark.
 

• Short-Term: Anticipate further price increments, spurred by limited supply and potential last-minute bulk purchases from key industrial buyers.
   
• Long-Term: Look for possible production expansions in Eastern Europe and continued challenges in Italy, where climate and cost pressures persist. TMO activities, climate patterns, and global demand for hazelnut-based confectionery will each play decisive roles in setting market equilibrium.
   

As supply strategies shift and new market entrants vie for a share of the global hazelnut trade, stakeholders must monitor developments in Turkey’s policy, changing consumer preferences, and climate impacts. Despite near-term uncertainties, the enduring popularity of hazelnuts in global confectionery and snacking should support a generally robust market over the coming years.