China's 2024 Walnut Crop Report: A Comprehensive Analysis by Momex
 

Product Overview

Walnuts are among the most favored nuts worldwide, recognized for their nutritional value and popularity in daily diets.

A typical walnut kernel consists of approximately 4% water, 15% protein, 65% fat, and 14% carbohydrates. Unlike many other nuts that are high in monounsaturated fats, walnut oil is predominantly made up of polyunsaturated fatty acids, which account for 72% of its total fat content.

Chinese Walnut Production

In the 2023 crop year, global in-shell walnut production reached around 3.9 million tonnes, with China contributing 36% of this total. Other leading producers include the United States, Chile, and others.

The most renowned variety of Chinese walnuts is the “185” type, also known as the "paper shell walnut." Other varieties like Xin2 and Xinfeng have also seen increased demand in the market.

Crop Year 2024 Insights

Our team began onsite inspections on July 31st, 2024, to assess walnut farms and market conditions. The following provides an overview of the current status of the walnut crop, with a focus on the “185” variety.

• Size: The average size of walnuts in the 2024 crop appears slightly larger than in 2023, ranging from 23mm+ to 38mm+, with the majority around 32mm+. Most commercial orders are expected to focus on the 32mm+ size, which will likely become the standard for 2024 sales.
• Quantity: In 2023, the combined production of the “185” and “Xin2” varieties was approximately 150,000 metric tonnes. For 2024, production is anticipated to double to about 300,000 metric tonnes. This significant increase marks 2024 as a major year for Chinese walnut production.

• Quality: Walnut quality is heavily influenced by weather conditions such as snow, hail, and rainfall. The 2023 crop experienced mold issues due to heavy rain just before harvest. However, the 2024 crop has benefited from more favorable weather, leading to an expected improvement in quality over the previous year. Some regions are even producing top-quality walnuts with superior kernel color. For detailed information, please reach out to our sales team.

Market Analysis

While we are excited to announce a “big year for Chinese walnuts,” the production landscape is not as favorable globally.

The United States and Chile, key competitors in the walnut market, are experiencing significant reductions in crop yields. This situation is likely to increase demand for Chinese walnuts, leading to faster depletion of Chinese walnut stocks.

In 2023, the shortage of top-quality in-shell walnuts led to near depletion by the end of April 2024. For 2024, considering both the doubled production in China and the reduced output from the U.S. and Chile, top-quality walnuts are projected to be available until the end of May 2025.

Want to Know More?

1. What makes China’s 2024 walnut crop significant?
China’s 2024 walnut crop is notable for its record-breaking production volume, with an expected output of 300,000 metric tonnes, double the previous year’s yield. This increase, along with larger average nut sizes and improved quality, positions China as a key player in meeting global walnut demand.

2. How does the 2024 walnut size compare to previous years?
The average size of walnuts in the 2024 crop has increased compared to 2023, with sizes ranging from 23mm+ to 38mm+. The standard commercial size has focused on 32mm+ walnuts, which are expected to dominate sales this year.

3. Wow is the quality of 2024 walnut crop in China?
The 2024 walnut crop in China benefited from favorable weather conditions, unlike the 2023 crop, which faced mold issues due to heavy rain before harvest. This has resulted in a higher quality crop with better kernel color, especially in specific regions known for top-quality walnuts.

4. How is the global walnut market expected to respond to China’s increased production?
With major competitors like the U.S. and Chile experiencing drops in production, China’s increased walnut output is expected to fill the global supply gap. This could lead to faster consumption rates and potentially stabilize or increase walnut prices globally, especially for premium-quality products.

5. What are the strategic opportunities for traders and importers with the 2024 Chinese walnut crop?
The significant increase in production volume and quality makes Chinese walnuts an attractive option for traders and importers. Securing contracts early, particularly for top-quality grades, is advisable to capitalize on favorable market conditions and meet the anticipated global demand.