In 2024, the global prune market is witnessing a notable shift. Despite a significant decline in production, the demand for Chilean prunes is soaring, particularly from China. This trend is impacting prices and shaping the dynamics of the prune industry.
During the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) Congress in May 2024, global prune production was forecasted at 193,550 metric tons, reflecting a 12.3% decrease compared to the previous year. Several major prune-producing countries, including the USA, Chile, and Argentina, are experiencing lower yields.
Chile's prune production has been particularly affected, with an estimated output of 55,000-60,000 metric tons this year, down from 68,000 metric tons in the 2023/2024 season. The decline is attributed to unusual weather patterns, including a warmer winter, a cooler spring, and a hot summer, which have collectively impacted the crop.
Furthermore, significant quantities of fresh plums were exported to China in
February, reducing the raw materials available for dried fruit production.
Despite the reduced production, the demand for Chilean prunes, especially from China, remains robust. More than 70% of the prune stocks have already been sold, with China's imports from Chile rising to 25,000 metric tons in 2024, up from 18,000 metric tons in 2023. This surge in demand is putting upward pressure on prune prices due to the lower overall availability.
In addition to the strong demand from China, Chilean dried fruit traders are focusing on expanding their market presence in India. While prunes are not yet a widely consumed product in India, efforts are underway to promote them, aiming for long-term growth in this emerging market.
Contrasting with the demand surge in China, Germany has seen a significant drop in prune imports. Between September 2023 and April 2024, Germany imported 4,993 metric tons of prunes, a 30.5% decrease compared to the 7,184 metric tons imported during the same period last year. Despite this decline, Chile remains Germany's most important prune supplier, though its imports fell by 19.5% to 3,237 metric tons.
Imports from other countries also saw considerable reductions:
However, some countries increased their prune exports to Germany:
The global prune market is navigating through a period of change, driven by fluctuating production levels and shifting demand patterns. For traders and stakeholders, staying informed about these trends is crucial for making strategic decisions.
As Chilean prune exporters continue to meet the rising demand from China and explore new opportunities in India, the market is expected to remain dynamic. With weather conditions playing a significant role in production outcomes, monitoring climate impacts will be essential for anticipating future market movements.
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