In 2025 the Almond Industry Faces a Perfect Storm
Global almond supply has surged 23 % to 1.79 million t just as a new wave of U.S., EU and Chinese tariffs rattles trade routes. California (80 % of world supply) is nearly sold out, Australia is shipping more than it produces, Spain’s orchards are water‑logged, and buyers everywhere are recalculating landed costs.
This report distils every key data point—shipments, production, tariffs, prices, weather and policy—into a single, easy‑to‑read guide for Momex traders and food professionals.
Latest Market Updates & News
1. Overview of Tariff & Trade Disruptions
In early 2025, the U.S. administration under President Donald Trump triggered major tariff measures:
Simultaneously, the U.S. introduced a baseline 10 % duty on all other imports on 2 April 2025, while 125 % remains in force on imports from China, prompting Beijing to retaliate with an 84 % tariff on U.S. almonds. President Trump also proposed a 24 % import tariff on India—although negotiations with India continue in hopes of reducing the current 42–120 % range on U.S. almonds.
Across the Atlantic, EU countermeasures arose after the White House slapped a 25 % tariff on European steel and aluminium (effective 12 March). In retaliation, the EU Commission planned similar levies on U.S. agricultural products, including almonds. A first round started 1 April (maintaining pre‑existing tariffs on products like U.S. peanut butter and dried cranberries). A second round was scheduled for mid‑April, and a further round, set for 1 December 2025, will specifically include shelled and inshell almonds at 25 %.
Canada and Mexico responded with up to 25 % reciprocal tariffs after 4 March 2025. Meanwhile, Vietnam faces 46 % reciprocal tariffs from the U.S., raising concerns about its export competitiveness in fruit and nuts.
Experts note that even if the U.S. government issues an aid package to farmers (as in 2018), smaller producers may still suffer due to uneven distribution of subsidies and persistent cost pressures.
2. U.S. Almond Exports: Key Facts & Figures
According to industry data, California accounts for almost 80 % of global almond supply and exports around 80 % of its production. The 2024/25 U.S. almond crop is pegged at about 2.7 billion lbs, 1 % lower than last year’s final receipts of 2.68 billion lbs, but still robust. By February, U.S. almond commitments had reached 577.4 million lbs, the highest in three months yet still 8.5 % off last year’s pace. New February sales of 221 million lbs were 3 % above last year, setting a new monthly record.
Country‑by‑Country (Aug–Mar)
Exports to Canada grew 12.3 % over the past few years (to around 37.79 million lbs in the current season), while Mexico also increasingly relies on U.S. supply, though both countries introduced reciprocal tariffs. In practice, U.S. origin remains dominant because alternative sourcing is negligible.
3. Global Production Up 23 %; Mixed Bloom in California
As reported by the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC), global almond production in 2024/25 hit 1.794 million metric tonnes (kernel basis), a 22.5 % gain from prior seasons:
4. Australia’s All‑Time‑High Exports
February 2025 wrapped up the Australian almond marketing year (Mar–Feb) with total shipments at 169,541 t, up 29.4 %. Domestic shipments rose 6.6 % to 26,029 t, while exports jumped 34.6 % to 143,512 t.
February alone saw 5,533 t shipped, including 3,129 t for export. Higher tariffs on U.S. almonds in multiple markets make Australian supplies more appealing, though final volumes hinge on actual orchard availability.
5. Spain’s Rainy March & Rebounding Exports
Spain’s wettest March since the 1960s came at a delicate bloom period. Pollination was hampered by damp orchards, raising concerns of pests and fungi. On the other hand, water shortages from last year’s drought have eased. Reservoirs now average 70 % capacity (20 % in some southeastern areas).
Despite uncertainties, Spanish almond exports from August 2024 to January 2025 climbed 23.1 % to 91,152 t (up from 74,029 t the prior season). Key buyers:
6. Harvest Time, Quality & Price Trends
Harvest Calendars
Current Spot Prices
Forward Signals
7. Tariff Impact & Global Trade Dynamics
8. Export & Import Trends
EU importers complain tariffs will hurt processors, but Spain’s organic lobby wants them for fairer competition.
9. Market Analysis & Signals
Price outlook: Steady‑to‑firm through Q3; bullish risk if India cuts duty or USDA estimate surprises low.
10. Additional & Complementary Updates Not Covered Above
Conclusion
Record supply has not delivered cheap almonds. Instead, tariffs, tight carry‑out and weather risk keep prices elevated. Importers should diversify origins and lock in needs before the EU’s December duty kicks in, while exporters must court India, the Middle East and niche Belt‑and‑Road markets to offset lost Chinese volume.
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