California Almonds Dominate Global Trade While Spain and Turkey Adapt to Challenges!
 

The almond market in 2024 has seen significant shifts, shaped by climatic challenges, geopolitical tensions, and robust global demand. With key players like the United States, Spain, and Australia leading the charge, the market continues to exhibit resilience and adaptability. Here's an in-depth look at production updates, export-import dynamics, pricing trends, and future projections for this vital nut industry.

 

Latest Market Updates and Production News
 

United States: Record Shipments and High Prices

• California Exports Soar: The Almond Board of California reported record November shipments of 216.95 million pounds, up 22% from November 2023. Total exports for the crop year reached 671.8 million pounds.
• Domestic Market Slows: Domestic shipments in November declined by 10%, totaling 54.44 million pounds, while overall domestic shipments remained flat at 239.87 million pounds.
• Geopolitical and Trade Dynamics:
  • Exports to India fell by 23% due to competition from Australian almonds.
  • China/Hong Kong demand slumped by 42%, with buyers shifting to other suppliers like Vietnam and Australia.
  • Robust growth in Turkey (+63%) and the Middle East (+38%) helped offset declines elsewhere.
    
     

Spain: Climatic Challenges and Price Volatility

• Mixed Pricing Trends: Almond prices in Spain fluctuated across regions:
  • Largueta and Garrigues remained stable in Mercamurcia, ranging from €4.22 to €5.43/kg.
  • Increases of €0.05 were noted for Comuna and Belona in the Ebro market.
• Climatic Impact: Persistent droughts and water scarcity have reduced yields, though 2024 saw a slight recovery in crop quality.
  
   

Australia: Stable Growth

• Strong competition with California almonds in the Indian market helped stabilize Australian exports. Buyers favored Australian almonds for their pricing and consistent quality.
  
   

Turkey: Supporting Almond Expansion

• Government initiatives in Diyarbakır Province focused on expanding almond cultivation through subsidized seedlings and material support, aiming to strengthen domestic production and exports.
  
   

Global Production Status and Harvest Insights

United States

• Acreage Decline: Total almond acreage dropped for the third consecutive year, falling to 1.52 million acres, with bearing acres increasing slightly to 1.383 million acres.
• Harvest Quality: Dry weather improved harvesting conditions, but lower-than-expected receipts may keep total crop size below the projected 2.8 billion pounds.
• Harvest Time: August to October.

Spain

• Focus on Water-Efficient Varieties: Efforts to adapt to water scarcity have driven the development of almond varieties requiring less irrigation.
• Harvest Time: September to October.

Australia

• Sustainable Practices: Investments in water management and sustainable farming techniques continue to enhance Australia’s competitive edge.
• Harvest Time: February to April.

Turkey

• Expansion of hard-shelled fruit cultivation under government projects is expected to boost future harvests significantly.
   

Export and Import Dynamics
 

Top Exporters

1. United States: Dominates the global almond trade with robust exports to India, the Middle East, and Europe.
2. Spain: A key supplier to Europe, focusing on premium varieties like Marcona and Largueta.
3. Australia: Competes in Asia-Pacific and Indian markets with consistent quality and competitive pricing.
    

Key Importers

1. India: A vital market for US and Australian almonds, though recent price hikes have slowed imports.
2. Middle East: A growth hotspot, with UAE imports rising 21% year-on-year.
3. Europe: Increased shipments to Spain (+71% in November), the Netherlands (+38%), and Turkey (+63%).
    

Prices and Future Trends
 

Current Price Trends

• US Almonds: High prices due to robust demand and limited carry-over stocks.
• Spain: Regional price variations, with stable and marginally increased rates in Mercamurcia and the Ebro market.
• Australia: Competitive pricing favored in Asian markets.
   

Future Projections

• Rising Prices: Expectations of higher prices into 2025 due to constrained supply and strong demand from India and Europe.
• Shift in Demand: Increased interest in organic and sustainably sourced almonds, particularly in the EU.
• Geopolitical Influence: Continued challenges in trading with China may push US exporters to diversify markets further.
  
   

Challenges and Opportunities
 

Climate and Sustainability

• Persistent droughts and rising production costs have put pressure on growers, particularly in Spain and California.
• Investments in water-efficient and climate-resilient almond varieties are crucial for long-term sustainability.
   

Trade and Geopolitics

• US-China tensions and shifts in Asian demand require strategic market diversification.
• The EU-Mercosur pact poses potential challenges for Spanish growers due to increased competition from South America.
   

Recommendations for Stakeholders

• Growers: Focus on water-saving technologies and premium-quality production to command better prices.
• Traders: Explore emerging markets in the Middle East and Southeast Asia.
• Investors: Monitor climatic trends and trade policies to identify opportunities in sustainable almond farming.
   

Conclusion

The global almond market in 2024 reflects a dynamic interplay of challenges and opportunities. With record shipments from the US, fluctuating European demand, and robust Middle Eastern growth, the industry is poised for further evolution. Stakeholders must navigate geopolitical pressures, climatic challenges, and rising costs with strategic innovation and adaptability.
 

FAQs
 

1. What are the main almond-producing countries?

The top producers are the United States, Spain, Australia, and Turkey, each contributing significantly to the global almond supply.
 

2. Why are almond prices rising in 2024?

Rising costs, reduced acreage, and strong global demand are driving almond prices upward.
 

3. Which countries import the most almonds?

India, the Middle East (UAE, Turkey), and Europe (Spain, Netherlands) are leading almond importers.
 

4. What are the harvest seasons for almonds?

• US: August–October.
• Spain: September–October.
• Australia: February–April.
   

5. How is climate change affecting almond production?

Droughts and water scarcity are reducing yields in key regions like California and Spain, prompting shifts toward water-efficient farming practices.
 

6. What are future trends in the almond market?

Expect continued growth in demand for organic almonds, rising prices, and market diversification in Asia and the Middle East.