30 % Crop Wiped Out! Black‑Sea Frost Sends Turkish Hazelnuts Sky‑High:  Will Hazelnuts Break the $15 per Kilo Ceiling in 2025?

Severe April frosts in Turkey slash the world’s largest crop by up to 30 %, driving raw‑material prices past TRY 215/kg (≈ USD 6.60/lb) and rattling confectionery buyers from Europe to East Asia. With TMO stocks exhausted, exporters on pause, and a new 10 % U.S. duty muddying trade routes, the global hazelnut balance has flipped from surplus to squeeze in barely three weeks.
 

Latest News (Chronological)
 

• 2 May 2025 – Frost “Not the Only Issue.” Early Black Sea Exporters Association optimism (+760 kt crop) evaporates after heavy snow; fresh field tours hint 100–150 kt may be lost, dragging potential output as low as 550 kt.
   
• 25 Apr – High Losses Anticipated, TMO Halts Sales. Turkey’s Grain Board suspends auctions; buyers report farm‑gate offers vanishing as growers await damage reports.
   
• 22 Apr – Prices Up 35 % in Two Weeks as TMO Runs Dry. Panic buying drains last 10–20 kt of state stocks; exporters under‑covered, farmers holding back.
   
• 16 Apr – Trade at a Standstill. Kernel prices jump 20–25 % in a single week to TRY 170–180/kg as first frost reports emerge.
   
• 5 May – INC Estimate Controversy. Market braces for 10 May International Nut & Dried Fruit Council (INC) forecast; rumours peg crop at 610 kt (+150 kt carry‑over), far above local talk—fueling distrust and volatility.
   

Latest Market Updates
 

Spot export quotes for natural 11–13 mm kernels have rocketed to EUR 9.50/kg (~ USD 10.5/kg) and 13–15 mm to EUR 10.40/kg (~ USD 11.4/kg)—fresh all‑time highs despite a stable lira. Raw inshell in the Black Sea now changes hands at TRY 215/kg (USD 6.60/lb) and farmers openly target TRY 250/kg (USD 7.70/lb).
 

Georgia and Azerbaijan report normal‑to‑good bloom and could add 20–30 kt between them—but that covers barely a fifth of the potential Turkish shortfall. Italy’s Piedmont region escaped frost but remains a boutique supplier at 15 kt/year. The U.S. Pacific Northwest expects a stable 55 kt, yet faces logistical pressure from the new 10 % reciprocal tariff on Turkish foods that may prompt Turkish sellers to divert more volume back into Europe and the Middle East.
 

Global Production Status
 

Turkey—normally 60–65 % of world crop—now faces its largest weather loss since the 2014 crisis. Damage is patchy: Trabzon and Giresun (below 300 m) survived, but key orchards in Ordu, Samsun and high‑altitude Sakarya show pistils blackened and up to 90 % bud kill. Final loss figures will hinge on June nut‑drop counts and July kernel fill.
 

Georgia & Azerbaijan expect average yields around 60 kt combined, offering a modest buffer for European shellers.
 

Ukraine plans to expand hazelnut area to 8 000 ha aiming at 14–15 kt by 2030, but 2025 commercial volume remains < 8 kt.
 

Chile & U.S. (Oregon) enter bloom under favourable conditions; Chile’s 2025 output seen at 45 kt, U.S. at 55 kt, both too small to offset Turkey’s cut but vital for premium chocolate blends.

 

Exporters, Importers & Trade Flows
 

Turkey shipped 323 kt kernels in 2024 (+14 % y/y), earning USD 2.64 bn. Germany, Italy, France and the Netherlands absorb over half. China’s demand is climbing—USD 51 m in Jan‑Jul 2024—while India is flagged as the next growth target by the Black Sea Exporters’ Association.
 

With TMO empty and private stocks tight, Q2 exports have slowed to a trickle; European roasters report bid/offer spreads of USD 1.50/kg. U.S. buyers face the 10 % duty from 5 April, eroding Turkey’s landed‑cost edge versus Italian or U.S. domestic crop.
 

Product Quality, Harvest Timing & Characteristics
 

Early catkin counts were excellent, hinting at large calibre nuts. Frost stress, however, may reduce kernel size and raise dark‑skin incidence—especially in high‑altitude Ordu lots. The main harvest starts late August; growers worry about secondary fungal issues on damaged tissue. Georgian and Azeri nuts typically show smaller calibre but strong flavour; their 2025 quality outlook is good after a mild spring.
 

Prices Now & Future Trends (in USD)
 

• Natural kernels 11–13 mm FOB Istanbul: $10.5–11.0/kg
• Natural kernels 13–15 mm: $11.4–12.0/kg
• Inshell ex‑farm Ordu: $6.60/lb (≈ $14.55/kg)
• Georgian extra 11–13 mm: $9.00/kg offer indications
   

Three‑month outlook: If INC confirms a crop near 610 kt, prices could stabilise near current levels. A figure below 580 kt risks a spike toward $13–14/kg for 13‑15 mm kernels. Upside risk is acute given zero state buffer and farmer stock‑piling.
 

Market Analysis & Signals
 

• Supply vacuum: TMO’s withdrawal removes the traditional shock‑absorber; trade must now rely on private carry‑over (estimated < 150 kt).
   
• Currency factor muted: TRY is range‑bound after a series of rate hikes; price rally is commodity‑driven.
   
• Speculation vs. evidence: Field tours by exporters show heavier damage than the rumoured INC figure—fueling a stand‑off between sellers and nervous industrial buyers.
   
• U.S. tariff impact: The 10 % duty nudges American chocolate brands to consider domestic Oregon crop or Italian PGI alternatives, but both lack volume. Net effect: additional pressure on EU processors to compete for reduced Turkish supply.
   

Tariff & Policy Watch
 

• United States: From 5 Apr 2025, a blanket 10 % duty applies to Turkish agri‑food imports. Current MFN hazelnut duty is low (~1.5 % ad valorem); the new layer raises total landed cost roughly $0.15–0.20/kg.
   
• EU: No changes, but Brussels monitors market concentration; any Turkish export restriction could prompt anti‑hoarding scrutiny.
   
• Turkey: No export bans expected; government may announce farmer support or release a token volume if prices over‑inflate, echoing 2021 precedent.
   

Strategic Insights for Momex Stakeholders
 

1. Buyers – Lock in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 volumes before the final damage reports in June. Prioritise 13‑15 mm where shortage will be most acute.
    
2. Sellers – Drip‑feed offers; market reward for calibrated, low‑aflatoxin lots is extreme. Consider partial hedging to capture any post‑INC retracement.
    
3. Risk Managers – Monitor TurkStat bloom surveys and July husk‑split counts; a ≥ 25 % drop usually precedes a second‑half rally.
    
4. Product Developers – Explore blends with Georgian or Azeri hazelnuts to shield recipes from Turkish premium spikes while maintaining flavour profile.
    

Additional & Complementary Updates
 

• April frost also devastated 90 % of Sakarya’s orchards, jeopardising 2026 bearing wood—longer‑term bullish.
   
• Ukraine’s 98 % dominance of its domestic nut orchards by hazelnut opens a potential new East‑European supply line post‑2027.
   
• Chilean and U.S. crops look healthy; watch Chilean kernel moisture after a wet autumn—it can influence shelling yield and European interest.
   
• Turkish share of global production slipped from 80 % in the 1990s to 60–65 % today; loss of dominance makes future weather shocks more price‑explosive.
   

Conclusion
 

The 2025 hazelnut season has pivoted from record optimism to supply crisis in the space of two spring frosts. With up to a third of Turkey’s crop damaged, TMO stocks gone, and a fresh U.S. import duty distorting trade flows, prices are primed for further volatility. Buyers who delay risk chasing a shrinking pool of high‑grade kernels at head‑line‑grabbing premiums. Armour your supply chain now—diversify origins, secure long‑dated contracts, and stay laser‑focused on orchard reports through June—because in this market, every bud count matters.
 

FAQs
 

What is the current hazelnut price in 2025?
Export‑grade Turkish natural kernels cost about USD 10.5–12.0 per kilogram, with inshell farm‑gate prices topping USD 14.5 per kilogram after April frost damage.
 

Why did hazelnut prices jump so sharply in April 2025?
Severe frosts in Turkey’s Black Sea orchards cut potential output by up to 30 %, depleting supply just as state reserves ran out and exporters faced under‑coverage.
 

How will the 10 % U.S. tariff affect Turkish hazelnut exports?
The duty raises landed costs for American buyers, potentially redirecting some trade to European and Asian markets, but Turkey remains indispensable for global confectionery demand.
 

Can Georgia or Azerbaijan fill the supply gap?
Their combined 2025 harvest (≈ 60 kt) is too small to fully offset Turkish losses but provides critical relief to European roasters seeking alternative origins.
 

When will we know the final 2025 Turkish crop size?
The International Nut & Dried Fruit Council will release its first official estimate on 10 May 2025, but true clarity won’t come until June nut‑drop counts and July kernel‑fill surveys.
 

Will hazelnut prices fall later in the year?
Only if damage proves far smaller than current field reports—or if demand destruction sets in. Otherwise, tight supply and farmer stock‑holding suggest prices could test new highs into Q4 2025.